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tv   FOX News Sunday With Chris Wallace  FOX  November 4, 2012 9:00am-10:00am EST

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through into the evening hours. overall, a really, really nice day. so here's a look at times where the polls will be open, and it will be cool, with testimonies with temperatures in the 50s. >> get out there and vote. fox news sunday is next. captions by: caption colorado, llc. (800)775-7838. email: e vote. ♪ >> chris: president obama and governor romney try to drum up support. but it is really about the ground game. who has been more effective in getting out early voters? who will have the better organization tuesday? we'll talk last-minute strategy with david axelrod, senior advisor for the obama campaign. and, rick beeson, political dra director for team romney and the electoral map, how does each side get the 270 votes they need to win? we'll ask our sunday panel to
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survey the battleground states and look for any surprises. and, from the storm of a lifetime to one of the tightest presidential races ever, we go "on the trail." all, right you now on fox news sunday. ♪ >> chris: and, hello, again. this time, from fox news election headquarters in new york. and, we are back on standard time, and we hope you set your clocks back, one hour. well, it is finally here. the last 48 hours, of the seemingly endless campaign. and, for both sides it us all about getting supporters all to vote. we want to talk about ground game tactics with each camp, starting with david axelrod, senior strategist for the obama campaign, who is in our washington studio and, david, welcome back to fox news sunday. >> thanks, chris, good to be with you. >> chris: before we get to the campaign, i want to ask you about libya. here is what the president promised, and here's what he has actually done. >> president barack obama: every piece of information that we
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get, as we got it, we laid it out for the american people. >> chris: and, that was the president, returning from a campaign trip, and not answering a question about benghazi, david, simple question: did the president make a calculated decision, to run out the clock, until the leck and not answer questions, about libya? >> no. >> chris: so, why hasn't he answered questions about his personal involvement in libya? >> the president has, from the beginning, chris and we've talked you about it before, of course, the president has said, we want to get to the bottom of it and share it with the american people and get it right and there are a couple of distinguished americans, ambassador pickering and admiral mullen, the former head of the joint chiefs of staff who are reviewing the whole matter, to get to the bottom of it. not just to find out, you know, where things went wrong, but, how to fix it. and, so, that our diplomats and the service people we send
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overseas are as safe as they can be. they are serving in dangerous places and you cannot eliminating risk but you want to do as much as you can and that is the president's goal. >> chris: i understand all of the interagency issues and it does take time but i'll ask you a few straightforward questions about the president's personal involvement that don't take time, and he could answer today. question one: the u.s. consulate in benghazi was attacked twice, before the 9/11 fatal assault. in fact, in august, and repeatedly, security officials there asked for more security, said they felt they were vulnerable. and, the situation was so dangerous, that the british diplomats and the red cross pulled out of benghazi. question: did the president know about that? >> chris, all i can tell you is, the president is fully committed to the safety of his diplomats and knew the ambassador and was deeply invested in his work
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there and, obviously, any steps that we needed to take, we would have wanted to take. so, you know, i mean, i'm not in the white house, i'm not privy to all of the discussions but i can tell you this: this president is 100% committed to the people of -- he sends overseas personally to represent the country and is the one who met the coffins when they came home, any suggestion that he would not take the necessary steps, to protect them, make some decision not to take the steps to protect them is nonsense. >> chris: david, i understand you are not in the white house anymore but you prepared the president and the vice president for their debates, where libya came up and one of the debates, the vice president said, we weren't told about requests for more security, so i guess i'm asking, again, directly, did they know how dangerous the situation in benghazi was, beforehand, before the attack, and, that the -- security officials in benghazi were asking for more help?
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>> obviously, benghazi was dangerous, there were many other places in the world that are dangerous, where our diplomats serve and where our military and intelligence serves. and -- but the question the vice president was asked, was did he know about a specific request for additional security and the answer to that was no. those requests that we have -- 230-plus facilities, around the world, those requests go to the security professionals in the state department. and, that is what happened in this case. >> chris: second area. on the night of the attack, the president met with top national security advisors, and told them to deploy assets to the area. question: why did he decide not to deploy? why not actually send those assets in, in the seven hours wean the first attack and the second attack, in benghazi, that night, and, the second attack, seven hours later, two americans were killed? >> chris, it has been reported
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and as the white house has said, i think, there was another piece of it in the paper this morning. the president convened the top military officials that evening. and told them to do whatever was necessary and they took the steps they thought they -- took every step they could take. but, listen, this is exactly what this review is about. because, the real question here is, what went wrong, what could have been done better, if we have to make adjustments in the future, what adjustments should we make. that is a solemn responsibility of the president, and, everyone who serves with him and that is what is going to happen. >> chris: finally, the president cancelled campaigning for three days -- three days -- to deal with hurricane sandy and he was praised for your that. why did he decide to go campaigning in las vegas within hours after four americans were killed in benghazi, in a terror attack. >> chris, as i said, immediately when word of the attack came, the president was meeting with
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his top national security folks, talking to them, well into the night. he was in touch with them, during the day, as -- during the next day as well. so, there is no question about the fact that he was focused on this. >> chris: but, why did he feel he could campaign within hours after a terror attack? >> well, everything... everything was put in motion, that he could put in motion, everything, every conversation that needed to be had was being had between him and his top national security officials. >> chris: let's turn to the election. here's the latest real clear politics map based on an average of recent polls. let's put it up on the screen. it shows states solid or leading obama and we put them all in blue with 201 electoral votes, states solid and leaning romney in red, 191 votes and 11 statesen gray with 146 votes, romney is in pennsylvania today where the polls have him down
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more than four points and his campaign says their electoral map is extending and that he has a shot there. what say you? >> i say they understand they are in deep trouble. they have tried to expand the map because they know that in the states like ohio, where they have to win, no republican has ever been elected without carrying the state of ohio. they are behind and not catching up, at this point. and, they are also going to be in there, and virginia, two states, that you would assume, by now, would have secured -- at least they assume by now they would secure. they understand that the traditional -- or the battle ground straits on which we have been focusing are not working out for them. we're ahead in all of them and now are looking for somewhere, desperately looking for somewhere to dislodge the electoral votes and i can tell you, it will not happen. >> chris: you bet your mustache on the president winning pennsylvania, how secure is your mustache today? >> the next time we see each
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other, chris, i guarantee you it will be right where it is today. and, it has been there 40 years and you know how serious a bet that was. >> chris: the key now is turnout. and, the obama campaign talked for years about how strong your ground game is. i want to look at ohio. and what the romney camp says is happening in early voting and absentee balloting. let's put the numbers up on the screen. it is a little complicated. but i hope you can see the graphic. they say -- the romney camp, says that 557,000 ohio democrats voted early and got an absentee ballot so far, 155,000 from four years ago. and 481,000 republicans have voted early, or got the absentee ballot and that is up 108,000 from four years ago and that is a swing of 263,000 votes in early balloting. which wipes out obama's final victory margin of 262,000 in ohio, four years ago.
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what they are saying is if substantially more republicans turn out to vote in ohio, on election day, which is what they traditionally do, they are going to win ohio and you will lose. >> well, i'll tell you what, chris, we'll know in two days who is bluffing and who is not bluffing. the fact is, that if you look at every poll in ohio, we have been ahead, even or ahead in virtually every one and the latest came out this morning, in the dispatch and one thing that is clear, we have a very, very large lead among voters who have voted early. we are going to go into election day with a significant lead, and, so, you know, we -- they can spin it any way they want. what i'm looking at is cold, hard data. who is actually showing up, who is casting ballots, and, states like ohio, iowa, nevada, florida, we're doing very, very well. what they are doing is comparing this to 2008, and you and i have had the discussion. i am not suggesting we will win by the same margin we won in 2008. and, they are comparing
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themselves to john mccain, who had virtually no ground operation in many of these states, so, yes, they will do better than john mccain did and we may not do as well as we did in 2008, but, we are doing plenty well and well enough to win the race. >> chris: let me ask you, briefly, about florida, where president obama is down by more than a point, in the polls. and yet you are making your final advertising by the campaign there. in florida. why not in the state you must win? >> well, first of all, we feel very competitive in the state of florida. there have been a spate of polls, in fact in all of these polls, battle ground state polls that came out the last 48 hours, we are ahead in 90% of them, including florida. and there were a couple of mixed polls in florida, but we are very pleased with where we are in early voting. and, we believe we are -- there, too, on election day, we'll go in with a large lead. and we are very competitive in florida and they know it because they are spending a lot of time there. if they were comfortable in florida, they wouldn't be spending as much time and money
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as they are spending, down there today. >> chris: david, when will we know who the next president is? and do you think it will come sooner than expected on tuesday night? or do you think it is something that is going to stretch into wednesday morning? >> well, i think that the races are very close. and so it could extend past midnight into the morning. i don't think by this time of the morning we'll still be wondering who the president is. it is just a matter of tallying the votes. and, you know, there are fewer exit polls this year, so i think some folks in your business will be a little less bullish about making early forecasts. so, you know, listen we have been fighting for a year-and-a-half, we have been working for a year-and-a-half, for this day and our organizations in these states have been building for a year-and-a-half. we are willing to wait a couple more hours to find out what happened. >> chris: is there one state, is there one county or precinct that you will be looking at early in the evening that will tell you whether it with it be a good or bad night?
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>> well, obviously, you know, we have rolling data from turnout that will tell us things during the day but when votes start getting counted we'll have sample precincts and some states, everyone knows are very vital in this election. a series of them. but, ohio will be -- we'll be focused on some of those ohio precincts and i feel good about virginia and i think we'll win virginia. we had a great rally there last night and it will be close and that is one of the earlier reporting states, we'll look at those and in answer to your earlier question, if those start breaking our way it could be an earlier evening than people anticipated. >> chris: and finally, less than a minute left, i'm asking for a personal answer, not a political answer: you have been with barack obama from the illinois state senate all the way to the oval office. these final two days of his final campaign, how emotional for you? >> very, very, chris. i mean, this isn't just a friendship -- a partnership, but
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it is a friendship and, you know, i started getting interested in politics when i was five and j.f.k. came to my little community in new york city, and i saw him and i was hooked from that moment and it was an idealism that drew me and barack obama has given me my idealism back and i'm grateful to him for it and now all of us who have been with him for years are gathering on the last trip and it is a very emotional, proud time for us, and also one with great anticipation, because we think tuesday is going to be a great day. >> chris: david, i want to thank you, thank you as always, for talking with us, and we also want you to know that our offer still stands in the short system that is left for president obama to come on fox news for an interview, at least once, during this campaign. >> well, it is a generous offer and i appreciate you extending it. >> chris: all right. i didn't get a yes, there. >> i learned a few things on your show, chris. >> chris: well... i'm sorry about that. david, thank you. >> okay. good to be with you.
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>> chris: yes, sir. up next how the romney campaign plans to win the turnout battle. we'll talk with romney political director richard beeson when we come right back. ♪ that puts us in control. our abundant natural gas is already saving us money, producing cleaner electricity, putting us to work here in america and supporting wind and solar. though all energy development comes with some risk, we're committed to safely and responsibly producing natural gas. it's not a dream. america's natural gas... putting us in control of our energy future, now.
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romney, is political director richard beeson, who joins us from campaign headquarters in boston, and, rich, welcome to fox news sunday. >> chris, thanks for having me on, i'm sitting here trying to imagine what mr. axelrod is going to look like next week without his mustache... it is fun to think of. >> chris: we'll see. let me ask you about david axelrod, because he said you guys are desperate in pennsylvania, and you are vulnerable in florida. your reaction? >> well, desperate four years ago, this weekend, president obama was campaigning in indiana, and, today, governor romney is campaigning in pennsylvan pennsylvania. i don't think campaigning in states where we wasn't won since 1988 and 1972 are acts of desperation, it looks like the map is expanding drastically in our favor and it is nothing we are doing, it is governor romney's message and talk about florida, to spend more money down there is a little bit like
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barack obama's government, they want to throw money at the problem and hope it fixing it, but at the end of the day governor romney will carry florida by a significant margin. >> chris: let me ask you about the point that he made. romney, you know, money is one thing and the candidates' time as you know is the most precious commodity in these closing hours and romney, tomorrow, on monday, is going to spend time in florida and virginia. shouldn't you have locked up both of those reliably republican states weeks ago? >> well, let's not forget, reliably republican, barack obama won both of those states in 2008, and, so, as you look at the absentee ballot numbers coming out of florida, the democrats in '08 had a 370,000 vote margin. and that has been cut down to about 70,000 votes, right now and we will win on election day, by a significant margin, so, florida, you want to make sure it is taken care of and i don't know why they are spending money down there. governor romney wants to take another swing down there and as far as virginia it will be a close state and will come down
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to the end. look at the early results out of the absentee ballots, in democrat counties versus republican counties, it is a case all over the country, they are underperforming and we are overperforming and mr. axelrod can spin it how he wants, about john mccain or not doing well but the matter of the fact is, his message is carrying the day. >> chris: but we talked with axelrod about the real clear politics average of recent polls and the electoral map and here's a list of the key swing states i want to ask you about. you are trailing in wisconsin, you are trailing in pennsylvania, ohio, and iowa, and, as you suggest, you are basically tied in what for you is the must must-win state of virginia where the obama campaign, and we'll get to the specific states in a moment but i want to ask you about the general point. are you saying that these polls, public polls are wrong, or are you saying they may be right but you will win any way because your ground game is better and you'll turn the voters out more
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effect thistle than they are. >> it is like nailing jello to a tree, the polls are all over the place and they are different in each state by each day. there are two numbers to keep in mind, across the country and specific states it will matter even more. one is independents, independents will decide the race in all of these states. governor romney consistently leads among independents because they've seen his message, for creating 12 million jobs and real recovery and strengthening the middle class and the second number, you have an incumbent president who has been running for the job for the last four years since the day he got elected, and, has spent over $1 billion and is stuck well below 50, at 48, 47, 46, in all of these polls and when you are an incumbent, under 50, and well under 50, that is a bad place to be. >> chris: let's look at -- obviously, this has been your focus, so far, early voting, absentee ballot voting and,
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let's look at the numbers. nationally. at this point more than half a million fewer democrats have voted than in final early voting, in 2008. while more republicans have voted already, early, than did in the final voting, in four years ago. but, the democrats still lead, as you can see, there, by almost 600,000 votes. now, axelrod says, look, they are not going to do as well as they did four years ago and, yes, you are doing better than john mccain. but, they are still going to beat you. >> well, he can hope and wish all he wants. there are two key point to that. they have been voting their high propensity voters, and that is -- those are the voters who will turn out and vote under any circumstances. we have been concentrating on local den tasity voters, and, oa campaign terms a sporadic voter and we have done a better job getting them out to vote and, we have our high propensity voters
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coming out on election day and, in ohio, for example, we have 371,000 more high propensity republicans than they have democrats. >> chris: let's look at ohio, and we showed the early voting numbers, that you provided us, for ohio, to axelrod. but i want to look at the real clear politics track of polls, in ohio. and, this goes back, as you can see, more months, and, you have never held a lead there. you got real close after the first debate, but, you have never had a lead there. not once in ohio and, in fact the obama margin has grown slightly, recently. >> well, there is only one number that will matter and that is the one on election day and we are confident governor romney is going to prevail in ohio on election day. again, the sub point to ohio, when you look at all of the polls, at least 24, 25 public polls in 21 of them governor romney is leading with independents and not by a small margin but by a double-digit margin and uninvolved with ohio politics or across the country
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will tell you, the candidate who wins independents in ohio is going to win the ohio election. so, we are very confident about the race there. when you see president obama is going to under perform badly in the southeastern part of the state, and, lima, when vice president biden went on the debate and said the defense department doesn't need anymore m-1 tanks and, lima is the only place in the country to service those tanks, you will see pockets of disaffection in ohio that will cut into their margins and, again, at the end of the day, i feel good about governor romney's message and our turnout operations. >> chris: your campaign started running an ad in ohio, this week, which implies that jeep is shipping u.s. jobs to china. when in fact they are just expanding their operations, to china, but, they are not actually shipping u.s. jobs overseas. i want to play a clip of the ad and how president obama responded to it.
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>> obama took gm and chrysler in bankruptcy. and sold chrysler to italians when will build jeeps in china. >> you don't scare up workers to scare up votes. that is not what it is about. >> chris: isn't that a mistake, when gm and chrysler said the ad was misleading and the fact is, that chrysler, far from shipping jobs to hoshohio is expanding operations in toledo? >> well, i find it interesting that the president would attack governor romney on that, when they put up an ad, saying that, you know, governor romney let detroit go bankrupt when that is a headline from "the new york times" op-ed. and, the second thing, is president obama talking about scaring people, when, yesterday he's out there saying, voting is the best revenge. so, it gets back to a president who says, when you can't talk about big issues, you talk about small things. so, rather than talking about a
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$16 trillion deficit, or 12 million jobs or putting america back to work, he is talking about big bird and he's talking about voting for revenge. so, that is why you see governor romney opening up leads, in -- now minnesota yesterday and pennsylvania and michigan moved into a tie and all these states were not target states three weeks ago and it is because of governor romney's message. >> chris: you say the states, pennsylvania moved into a tie and according to the real clear politics average, i think it is a four-points margin for obama. >> last night, there was a poll that came out, and it was 47-47. again, president obama well under 50. in a state that he should be well over 50. there is a million more democrats in pennsylvania, than there are republicans. and, it is important to remember, energy is a very important issue in the state of pennsylvania and, in 2008, and the democrat primary, hillary clinton beat barack obama by double digits, after barack obama was the presumptive nominee for his party.
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pennsylvania is fertile ground for us. >> chris: finally, what will you be looking at, early on election night? what states, what counties? secondly, what -- is it going to be -- how will you you know whether it is going to be an early or a long night and how long do you think it is going to take for to us figure out who is the next president? >> well, there is going to be a lot of key bellwethers. what we are seeing consistently from the early absentee ballot numbers, that there is a general underperforming in places where president obama needs to do well and an overperforming in places where governor romney does well. there is an intensity factor out there on the side of the republicans, and it is a significant gap and we see it when people are knocking on the doors and, on the ground and when people are making the phone calls and it gets to the simple fact that governor romney is talking about big things and big change, not about small things and so i think as we start seeing returns coming in from
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new hampshire, from southeastern pennsylvania, from northern virginia, from cuyahoga county in ohio, i think it is going to become pretty clear that there is going to be a widespread repudiation of the obama administration, and, governor romney and congressman ryan will be elected the next president and vice president of the united states. ... very long to know that. >> chris: you say not waiting long, what are you predicting, will we see early in the... >> i'm saying that pennsylvania and michigan and minnesota are not past the 270, as mr. axelrod would like to purport. those are past the 300 and this is going to be a big election and governor romney is going to win it. >> chris: you are predicting over 300 electoral votes? >> it is going to be a big win for governor romney. >> chris: rich, thank you. thanks for sitting down with us for your first national tv interview. we'll see how the turnout battle goes in the closing hours of this race, and whether it turns out as well as you think it is going to.
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very much.much. >> chris: up next, we'll drill down into the electoral map, which states are truly undecided and where are the best chances for each side to score and knicks expected win, our sunday panel including karl rove gives us the inside scoop when we come right back. ♪ i'm getting married. planning a life. there are risks, sure. but, there's no reward without it. i want to be prepared for the long haul. i see a world bursting with opportunities. india, china, brazil, ishares, small-caps, large-caps, ishares. industrials. low cost. every dollar counts. ishares. income. dividends. bonds. i like bonds. ishares. commodities. diversification. choices. my own ideas. ishares. i want to use the same stuff the big guys use. ishares. 9 out of 10 large, professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. introducing the ishares core, etfs for the heart of your portfolio. tax efficient and low cost building blocks to help you keep more of what you earn.
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vote! vote! voting is the best revenge. >> he told his supports, voting for revenge. vote for revenge? let me tell you what i'd like to tell you. vote for love of country. >> chris: president barack obama and mitt romney going after each other. time for our sunday panel, brit hume, senior political analyst and democratic strategist joe trippi, karl rove, founder of the republican super-pac american cross crowds and jeff zeleny, and, we have worked with the real clear politics map, and let's throw it away and, let's go to the rove map -- >> rove-trippi map... >> chris: i went -- let's put it up and, karl, as of last week you and joe had states in various shades of blue with 221 electoral votes, solid or leaning obama and states in red
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and pink with 206 electoral votes, solid or leaning romney. and 9 toss-up states with 111 electoral votes, in yellow. any changes as of today. >> there is no evidence of massive changes, there are some, michigan might have been leaning obama last week but we have a very close election in which it is going to be decided on election night with a bunch of potential surprises. >> chris: you have a white board... >> think about this. on -- on the 3rd of november, 2008, president obama was at or above 50% in 7 of the 13 battle ground states that year and those same states this, year, on the same date, four years later, president obama is 50%, not above, but 50% in just two, wisconsin and nevada. and, wisconsin, that is -- he's only at 50%, because there is one poll, an outlier with an
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8-point lead for him. we have gone from cruising to victory in 2008 to a tight, tight, tight race in 2012. >> chris: one last question, and i'll bring in everybody else, what do you make of romney going to pennsylvania today and obama with last-minute ad buys in florida and virginia? who has got some wind at the back? who is serious? who is bluffing. >> they are all serious and they are not bluffing. president obama has difficulty in florida and virginia. these are two of the states where the real clear politics average goes to romney. and, pennsylvania has to come into play, and, if president obama was comfortable with pennsylvania he wouldn't be putting up television advertising there, and, if governor romney thought it was a bluff he wouldn't be spending time -- they are deadly serious and the race is very much up for grabs and we'll have last-minute surprises. i don't know whether minnesota, pennsylvania, michigan are really in play. but, i think they are. >> chris: joe?
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>> i just don't think michigan and minnesota are. i think, it doesn't make sense that pennsylvania and florida are both in play. in other words, if pennsylvania is really in play, florida should be put away in the bag for romney. look, i think everything is up for grabs, right now. and i think -- personally, i think it is a mistake for romney to go to pennsylvania. it is going to turn up the democratic vote, in philadelphia, so, i don't quite understand that part of their strategy. but, i do think, that florida and virginia, are in play, and that is sort of stunning right now. for me, that the obama people think they have shots about these states. >> chris: brit, you saw the list of swing states and the bigger list, really about a dozen states, in 9 of the 12 states, obama leads by 1 to 5 points over romney, in the real clear politics average. it seems there are three possibilities, one, the polls are wrong, two, romney's ground
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game will beat the difference and margin this polls or obama is going to win. do you have any feelings about that. >> we are under such an avalanche of polling data now like we have never seen before, you can construct a quite plausible scenario for any of the three possibilities you mentioned and probably a couple of others. i think the conventional wisdom is trending towards and obama win, something along the lines of what karl rove and his team pulled off for president bush in 2004. but, i'm by no means certain and there is a striking discrepancy between national polls which tend to be done by and large by older, more seasoned polling firms and state polls, a number of which are done by less established firms, the national polls have it as a tie and the state polls, as it suggested, battle ground state polls, suggest and indicate that president obama is ahead in nearly all of them. it is -- seems striking that there would be this difference. and we don't know. but, it is sobering, if you are a romney supporter to think he
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is trailing or, just tied, in so many of those states. could the polls be wrong? i think they could. whether they will be, well, that is what we are waiting to find out. >> chris: jeff, you have been traveling the country for weeks, for months. your sense of where the race stands, 48 hours out. >> things are different in battleground states because of the deluge of advertising, for weeks and months and people in ohio and iowa, florida and virginia have a different sense of the race than people do nationally and the reason, that pennsylvania is potentially in play here at the end, because there has not been a lot of advertising and they are experiencing the race as everyone else is, but in the battleground states, i was in ohio, and wisconsin and iowa this week and one thing you pick up, there is a real sense of enthusiasm for the romney campaign. there aren't republicans, i did not run into one republican voter, at rallies or just on the street, other things, who are not happy about elected mitt romney. as opposed to electing someone
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to beat president obama, that is a significant change and on the other side, the excitement and enthusiasm is not there. as it was four years ago, for president obama, it doesn't matter, perhaps not. i mean, he will not win by the margins, if he wins he will not win by those margins, from a -- from 2008 and at the end of the campaign, i talked to at a lot of republican advisors in boston and elsewhere. the confidence is in the uncertainty of what is going to happen as opposed to the confidence in their strength of position, in a florida or a virginia, they are really not sure what is going to happen in those states and that is a potential problem for them. >> chris: when you heard, as you just did, axelrod and beeson make their cases about ground game, early voting, voter intensity. what do you think has the better side of that argument? >> i think the organic intensity, no question, is on the side of the romney campaign. the turnout operation, we'll find out on tuesday, it is a really hard thing to measure from the outside but it is why
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the obama campaign started so early and, have been building up so much. so, if they are as good as they were in '08 and as good as they say they are, they'll have a better turnout. organic i believe it is on the side of the republicans. >> chris: karl, you have been through this in 2000 and 2004. there is a disparity here, the real clear politics average, obama is leading in the states to get to 270, with the two election, did you ever go into election day, behind in state polls, and you were able to turn it around, through voter intensity or just the sheer power of your ground game. >> sure, absolutely. but, it had to be very, very close and, look we don't know how close some of these are because, again, i think rick made an excellent point. the quality of these state-level polls is questionable. take "wall street journal," nbc polling, ohio had' 6 point lead for obama and 9 points more democrats and republicans meaning the turnout for democrats would be more enthusiastic than it was in '08
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and national polls, look at the last week. you use the rcp average, which is ten polls, take all 22 polls that were conducted as of midnight, last night, romney leads in 12, and obama leads in 4, and, tied in 6, and, romney is at or above 50% and, obama won and, the average of them, 48.2 to 47.5, and that is close but you get a sense, beneath of strength for romney that might be expressed particularly against an incumbent. incumbent gets not much more than the number they get on the final poll is what they get election day. >> what richard beeson said, is correct, they both believe they can get over 300 electoral votes, their models are different and one will be right and one will be wrong. >> chris: explain. >> if you look at what they think they can turn out in early votes and how it adds up with what they can turn out on election day and how many plus
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ds or plus rs -- >> chris: what percentage -- >> what the turnout will be, both have different models for how they look at these states and i think richard beeson is sincere when he says they'll win 300 and axelrod believes they'll win 300. one of them is really, really wrong. one of them is right, and, the experts can't tell you which is which. >> a very different view of the role of independents, that they play and axelrod glossed over it and richard beeson said independents will be dispositive. they have two different world views. >> chris: we have to take a break, when we come back we'll look at the latest jobs report and other factors that may decide who wins the presidency on tuesday. ♪ impact wool exports from new zealand, textile production in spain, and the use of medical technology in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds
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♪ >> chris: check out for behind-the-scenes features, panel plus and our special monday preview of the week ahead. you can find it at and be sure and let us know what you think. stay tuned for more from our panel. ♪
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[ male announcer ] tuesday, early, election day in the united states of america. our moment to make a choice. to bring jobs back. to make the economy, the american economy again. to find someone to lead. to lead us to a better future. the choice, now, the most important vote of our lives. [ romney ] i'm mitt romney and i approve this message. ♪ >> president barack obama: we have tried our ideas and they worked. we tried their ideas, and they
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don't work. >> if anyone wonders whether good jobs and better take-home pay are out there, i have a clear and unequivocal message for you. and that is, america is about to come roaring back. [cheers and applause]. >> chris: barack obama and mitt romney with their closing arguments, to voters, on the economy. and we're back now with the panel. we got the final jobs report, of the campaign, on friday, let's look at the numbers. it showed the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9%, but the economy created a better than expected 171,000 jobs. brit, the housing industry is picking up, consumer confidence is at a four-and-a-half year high as we go into election day, how is the economy now coming in the case? >> it is still in my judgment cutting against the president. no question about it, and i think the jobs report confirms that we have a continuing anemic recovery. it is a drag on him, the biggest drag, because it is the biggest
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issue, doesn't mean he won't win but i don't think that the jobs report gives him any real comfort or people much comfort, that his ideas, as he said, in that sound bite, which have been tried, are working. >> chris: jeff, you know, two q the country. one, has the president dealt with the economic issue in a way to defuse it and, secondly, how the facts of the economy made it less of a negative for obama than it was earlier in the race? >> i think it is less of a negative than earlier in the race. you talk about the national number, the state by state numbers are different and the unemployment rate for example, in the state of ohio, is at 7% and people feel better about the economy. i'm not sure if a voter in ohio, sort of thinks he is in a better place than a voter in florida because the unemployment rate is slightly lower but you have a sense out there from the republican governors in ohio, and wisconsin, in iowa, the economy is better. and that is helping the president in some of these
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battleground areas. it is worse in nevada, obviously, the highest rate of unemployment of any battleground state -- the midwest firewall president obama needs to hold, the economy is doing better, because of manufacturing, and, you know, the auto industry and other things, so i think that is propping him up here and... >> chris: all of ohio, wisconsin and iowa. >> right. >> chris: the other big story, karl, this week was hurricane sandy. the way it froze the campaign, the way that it allowed the president to look presidential doing his job. and, then there was a powerful political image and let's put that up. certainly the most powerful political image, this final week, obama walking the jersey shore with republican governor chris christie, who praised him, efusively. karl, how much did hurricane sandy help the president's prospects, this tuesday, and how much has it hurt romney? >> it was the october surprise, it was actually a surprise, a storm hits and the president respond. i think it helped him initially, but, i think it has been, as --
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whatever small advantage he gained from it is eroded by the images people are seeing on their tv screens. no doubt in my mind... >> chris: you mean the long lines for gas... people... >> people without food, you know, people dumpster-diving in manhattan. and this is -- these images don't particular say confidence and quick response. and, look, the president again is out there campaigning as opposed to appearing to be tending to business. but, look, minor improvement. i think it has been eroded away a little bit. but, in a close race those kind of things obviously have an impact. if i could say one thing about the economy. remember, people's attitudes about the economy, these individual states, they are not just looking at their state, like in ohio, we have polling date that says people credit john kasich rather than obama for jobs and, at the rate we are going it will take us three more years to get back to the level of employment we had when the recession began and in the meantime, we're on a 7-year
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backlog of people looking for jobs and people know that in their bones and just know it. >> chris: joe, both sandy and the economy, your thoughts? >> i agree with karl on sandy. i think initially it helped the president. i don't think any of the negatives will impact by election day. that might accrue because of the things karl is talking about but i think that the economy, while it has been a drag, one has been improving and you see in the president's numbers, his approval rating is going up and, has been up above 15 in some of these polls, a lot of them and iowa released a new iowa poll, that showed from the first time, right track, the majority of iowans think the country is on the right track and that has been going up in national polls as well, because they see an improving economy and that is -- accrues to the president, six weeks ago and, not now, people think things are improving. >> chris: inactionally, brit, people still by a wide margin, like a 2/3 of the country,
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thinks it is -- the country is on the wrong track? >> once again, we have the discrepancy. state-level differences from national sentiment. we see it in the polling for the two candidates in the race and so forth and we are about to find out whether these state-level sentiments, measured, these small samples of voters, turn out to be correct. i think it is unlikely -- it is hard to imagine as a political journalist all of these many polls are off. but, the discrepancy is unmistakable. and, puzzling. . >> chris: let me go done the line and i know who i will ask for predictions and who i am not. let me start with you, jeff. your best guess about tuesday night. will we know earlier or will it be and all nighter that stretches into wednesday morning. >> i don't think we'll know earlier and here's why. a lot of the ballots in states are long, there are a lot of statewide initiatives and judges
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things and i talked to an early vote are in florida who says she was intimidated by her ballot and it is long and it has been on her coffee table and she has been procrastinating and that is going to slow things down on election night. i do not think we'll have an early result. >> chris: is there a county, a precinct, a couple that you will look at really early and say, it gives me a sense about the night has gone. >> hamilton county, ohio, cincinnati, where four years ago, president obama was the first democrat in a long time to win the state -- hamilton county. if he is doing well there, or wins hamilton county, i think he likely wins ohio. so that is one place i'll be looking for. >> chris: karl, your sense of how long a night it will be and also, give me a place you will be looking. you'll be with me at our cowboys desk. what will you be looking at early. >> i'll be looking at the early states to see the difference between, say indiana and virginia with where -- and ken take where the president was four years ago and where he is
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today but i think jeff is absolutely right. i'll look not only at hamilton but, also, then -- >> in ohio. >> -- ohio and clairmount, warren, butler and, the more rural counties in the state and, the ex-urban counties, around cleveland and columbus to find out. >> chris: joe. >> ohio will be everything and whoever wins ohio is going to win the thing, i think we'll actually have indications from hamilton county and the other counties, karl talked about, that we'll be looking at, with you, that night. on election night. and they'll tell us how that is going, and that is the one i'll be watching. >> chris: your guess, long night or short night. >> i think obama will win ohio, thought that for 6 or 7 weeks. but, i think if he does he's president. >> chris: brit? >> i'll be watching virginia, where i live. over the weekend i was there and if my answering machine could vote, it could be decisive, for both campaigns, repeatedly, so we'll see, virginia will be very important. >> chris: thank you, panel, see you all next week, by then, we
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hope we'll know who the president is and, don't forget to check out panel plus where our group picks up with the discussion on our web site, and we'll post the video before noon, eastern time and make sure and follow us on twitter, @foxnews0, sunday. up next well, go on the trail. companies have to invest in making things. infrastructure, construction, production. we need it now more than ever. chevron's putting more than $8 billion dollars back in the u.s. economy this year. in pipes, cement, steel, jobs, energy. we need to get the wheels turning. i'm proud of that. making real things... for real. ...that make a real difference. ♪
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>> chris: the presidential campaign hit the pause button for a few days this week, when hurricane sandy barrelled up the east coast. but, by week's end the fury on the shoreline was replaced by the sound and fury on the trail. ♪ >> obviously, everyone is aware at this point that this is going to be a big and powerful storm. >> it has been a great working
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relationship. to make sure we are doing the jobs people elected us to do. >> we don't need the secretary of business to understand business. we need a president who understands business, and i do. and that's why... [cheers and applause]. >> president barack obama: governor romney has been using his talents as a sales money to dress up the very same policies that failed our country, so badly. >> mitt romney and i are campaigning on big ideas. on real reforms for a real recovery. >> folks, a president's job is not to sow confusion, it is to plant seeds of confidence. >> president barack obama: we've made real progress. but, we are here today because we know we have more work to do. >> the door to a brighter future is there. it is open. it is waiting for us. ♪
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♪ >> president barack obama: we'll win this election. we'll renew those bonds that tie us together as a people. >> we dream, we aspire and we reach for greater things and we'll achieve greater things with new leadership. >> chris: and, now, this program note: tuesday night, stay tuned to this fox station, starting at 7:00 p.m., eastern, and fox news channel starting at 6:00 p.m. for complete coverage of the 2012 election. and, we promise we'll stay on the air until we can tell you who won. and, that's it for today. have a great week, and we'll see you back in washington, next fox have a great week, and we'll see you back in washington, next fox news sunday. captioning by, closed captioning services, inc.
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